Fig. 2

Seasonal decomposition of monthly VL admission numbers at Kacheliba Sub-County Hospital between 2018 and 2022. (A) Monthly VL reports at Kacheliba Sub-County Hospital and a 5-month moving average. (B) Seasonal component of the VL reports, expressed as relative adjustment factor. The graph shows how VL admissions tend to peak in March and October and drop between July and September, suggesting seasonality in VL transmission. (C) Trend-cycle component of the VL reports, which displays an increasing trend from mid-2019 until mid-2022 after adjustment for the seasonal and residual components. (D) Residual component after removal of trend-cycle and seasonal components. For the generation of the graphs in panels B – D, the incomplete VL reports for December 2022 (until December 9th, n = 8) were linearly extrapolated to 31 days (n = 28)