Table 2 Median outbreak size, and expected numbers of various outcomes at the median outbreak size, given reported risks of these outcomes [19]. We assume complete ascertainment. If some transmission is in undetected cases who acquire immunity, these numbers would be lower. Numbers are overall rates because in the absence of information about the nature of the affected community, we do not model age demographics or contact patterns
From: Measles in Canada: modelling outbreaks with variable vaccine coverage and interventions
Vaccination coverage | Median outbreak size | Hospitalizations | Diarrhea/Pneumonia/Otitis media | Encephalitis/Death |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0.9 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.001 |
0.85 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.002 |
0.8 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.004 |
0.75 | 8.5 | 1.7 | 0.85 | 0.0085 |
0.7 | 19 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.019 |
0.65 | 51 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 0.051 |
0.6 | 116 | 23.2 | 11.6 | 0.116 |
0.55 | 186 | 37.2 | 18.6 | 0.186 |